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07/26/2010 -
COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. (AP) -Andre Dawson left a lasting impression on the ballfield with his true grit and sense of integrity. His eloquent speech upon entering the pantheon of baseball's greatest stars likely won't soon be forgotten, either.
At his induction Sunday into the Baseball Hall of Fame, Dawson charmed the audience with a series of jokes, praised the game that gave him a chance in life, chastised those who tarnished its image, and lamented that so many loved ones were not present to share his joy.
``Thank you for welcoming this rookie to your team'' said Dawson, who played for a decade in Montreal before signing with the Chicago Cubs in 1987 as a free agent. ``It's an honor beyond words. I didn't play this game with this goal in mind, but I'm living proof that if you love this game, the game will love you back. I am proof that any young person who can hear my voice right now can be standing here as I am.''
The 56-year-old Dawson, who endured 12 knee surgeries to forge an impressive 21-year major league career, is the 203rd player in the game's long history to be inducted. Selected in his ninth year of eligibility, the man called ``Hawk'' took the podium as Cubs and Expos fans roared their approval.
``I never knew what it felt like to be loved by a city until I arrived in Chicago,'' Dawson told a crowd estimated at around 10,000. ``You gave me new life in baseball. You were the wind beneath the Hawk's wings.''
He then poked fun at several Hall of Famers on the stage behind him.
``Rickey Henderson mentioned last year that when he was young he waited in a parking lot outside the Oakland Coliseum so that he could ask Reggie Jackson for an autograph,'' Dawson said. ``If I recollect, he said Reggie gave him an ink pad with his name on it. In 1977, I met Reggie at a card show. I was very nervous, but I had just been named rookie of the year, so I liked my chances of getting a signed picture. I asked Reggie for an autograph. Rickey, all he gave me was a candy bar with his name on it.''
Dawson, an eight-time All-Star who had 438 homers, 2,774 hits, 1,591 RBIs and 314 stolen bases from 1976-96, then turned serious, warning players not to be lured to the dark side of using performance-enhancing drugs.
``There's nothing wrong with the game of baseball,'' said Dawson, one of just three to hit 400 homers and steal 300 bases. ``Baseball will, from time to time like anything else in life, fall victim to the mistakes that people make. It's not pleasant and it's not right. Individuals have chosen the wrong road, and they're choosing that as their legacy. Those mistakes have hurt the game and taken a toll on all of us.
``Others still have a chance to choose theirs. Do not be lured to the dark side,'' he cautioned. ``It's a stain on the game, a stain gradually being removed.''
Dawson, who finished by paying tribute to his late mother, Mattie Brown, who died four years ago, was part of a class that included former manager Whitey Herzog, umpire Doug Harvey, broadcaster Jon Miller and sports writer Bill Madden.
The ceremony also honored Rock and Roll Hall of Famer John Fogerty, who sang his classic song ``Centerfield.'' Fogerty wrote the tune 25 years ago and it had been played at the start of induction Sunday for more than a decade.
``I'm truly honored,'' Fogerty said after playing the song on his guitar ``Slugger,'' which is shaped like a baseball bat and went on display later in the day inside the Hall of Fame. ``I wrote that as an 8-year-old boy. That 8-year-old boy right now is saying, 'It ain't getting any better than this.' ``
Herzog, 78, who played eight nondescript years for four teams, managed for 18 seasons, 11 with the St. Louis Cardinals after stints in Texas, California and Kansas City. He guided the Royals to three consecutive playoff appearances in the 1970s and led the Cardinals to the 1982 World Series title just two years after he was hired.
The Cards also made World Series appearances in 1985 and 1987 under Herzog, who finished his managing career in 1990 with a record of 1,279-1,123, a .532 winning percentage.
``Ever since I was elected in December, people have asked, 'What's it feel like to be a Hall of Famer?''' Herzog said. ``Now I can tell you what it feels like. It feels like going to heaven before you die.''
As he has so often in the past, Herzog credited Casey Stengel, the Hall of Fame manager of the New York Yankees and Mets, with much of his success.
``Casey told me so many things that became valuable,'' Herzog said. ``For some reason, he knew that I was going to be a big league manager. When I met Stengel, it was like an enlightening thing because I would go to bed at night, and instead of thinking about girls I would be thinking about what he talked about all day. He had is own language and it took me hours sometimes to figure him out.''
The 80-year-old Harvey, who worked in the National League from 1962 to 1992, called 4,673 regular-season games during his major-league career and also umpired five World Series, six All-Star Games and nine National League Championship Series.
Nicknamed ``God'' during his heyday because of his authoritative, no-nonsense demeanor on the field, Harvey lived up to the moniker on his special day.
Suffering from throat cancer, Harvey recorded his 20-minute acceptance speech in the spring. It began raining while the video was playing, but by the time he addressed the crowd the sun was shining.
``I want you to notice that I stopped the rain,'' he deadpanned in closing.
Harvey, the ninth umpire to be inducted and the first living umpire inducted since Al Barlick in 1989, joked afterward that ``I had less rainouts than anyone else in the world.''
``My only ambition has been to improve the profession,'' said Harvey, who learned from his father and didn't attend umpiring school because he couldn't afford it. ``I've tried to mentor, teaching them everything I know about the game.''
Harvey clearly was touched by the honor and cried while the recording of his speech was played.
``If you're a true baseball fan, you need to visit Cooperstown,'' he said. ``This is home, and you need to touch home. I'll be watching to make sure you do.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Angels get Dan Haren and a tree falls in the forest >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Yawn.
That is exactly the first thought that went through my head when my I-Phone
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acquired Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Joe Sau
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It’s time to see how the biggest NFL free agent signings will perform for their news teams. Some will work out and could be the difference that makes a difference in the win column.
We look at the best off-season signings and if they should influence your NFL betting this season. Julius Peppers – Peppers was the biggest prize available on the 2010 NFL free agent market and the Chicago Bears opened the bank to bring his talents to the south side.
Peppers is explosive, he can get around blockers and cause quarterbacks to lose their minds. We all remember the classic Peppers game last year against the Vikings where he hounded Brett Favre into his worst game of the season. Peppers joining the Bears could be the reason Favre retired for good Tuesday morning. In addition to Peppers, the Bears added Chester Taylor to back up Matt Forte, Forte didn’t have the same intensity in 2009 compared to 2008 and bringing in Taylor will challenge Forte to bring it every game or he’ll risk losing carries to Taylor.
Betting on the Bears is a good option this season because of Julius Peppers and to a lesser extent Taylor. Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens – The Cincinnati Bengals signed two former number one wide receivers to line up with Chad Ocho Cinco. Antonio Bryant had a huge season in 2008 catching 83 passes for over 1200 yards but regressed last season. Playing for the Tampa Bay Bucs last season was a large part of the regression, everyone was bad in TB last season.
Bryant should have a bounce back season if he can win the number two spot from Terrell Owens. If Bryant wins the number 2 WR spot, it will open up a completely new set of problems for the Bengals. If Owens is forced to the bench in favor of Bryant, his attitude will create trouble for Carson Palmer and head coach Marv Lewis. If Owens is the number two receiver, it means Bryant can’t live up to his past numbers and the Bengals are still limited in the passing game. NFL bettors should be wary of laying their money down on what could potentially be the biggest gong show in the league in 2010. 2010 football betting lines for this can be found at this top online sportsbook. Karlos Danby – The Miami Dolphins have a great running back tandem in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, a good young QB in Chad Henne and now the Bill Parcells regime is building a solid defense.
NFL bettors should be wary of laying their money down on what could potentially be the biggest gong show in the league in 2010. Karlos Danby – The Miami Dolphins have a great running back tandem in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, a good young QB in Chad Henne and now the Bill Parcells regime is building a solid defense. They signed away the Arizona Cardinals top linebacker Karlos Danby. In the past two seasons, Danby has totaled 228 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles. The Dolphins are the forgotten team of the AFC East with the second longest odds to win the division but with the addition of Karlos Danby and a trade for WR Brandon Marshall makes the Miami Dolphins legitimate contenders in the AFC East and in the NFL’s Eastern Conference.
The Dolphins will make NFL wagering fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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