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03/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After losing its first three games after the Winter Olympics, Dallas is coming off a victory that could very well turn its luck around. Now all it has to do is pick up its first victory at Buffalo in over 12 years.
The Stars shoot for that rare victory tonight at HSBC Arena versus the Sabres, who are aiming to win three in a row overall for the first time in over two months.
Dallas was outscored 17-5 over its post-Olympic slide and was facing the highest-scoring team in the league on Monday in Washington. Things didn't look good when the Stars found themselves down 2-0 after two periods and outshot 42-16.
However, the Stars scored three times in the third frame, and though they allowed the game-tying goal late in the third they still escaped with a 4-3 shootout win over the Capitals.
Brad Richards and Trevor Daley scored on the power play early in the third before James Neal gave Dallas its first lead in the frame. Though Marty Turco surrendered the game-tying goal to Alex Ovechkin with 3:16 left in the third, he ended with a career-high 49 saves and stopped four-of-five skaters in the shootout.
Richards and Loui Eriksson scored in the shootout, with Eriksson getting the game-winner in the fifth round.
"I don't care if I see one shot cause it's all about the win", said Turco. "We made some great plays tonight to have a chance in the third period and the guys came through, especially on the power play. This was a big win for us and now we can use it to turn things around."
Dallas, which won for the third time in its last four road games and ends a three-game swing tonight, come into this game five points back of a playoff spot in the Western Conference.
If the Stars want to close that gap, they will need to earn their first victory in western New York since October 7, 1997. They have four losses and a tie in four trips there since.
The Stars have also lost four straight overall to the Sabres, including a 5-4 shootout setback in Dallas last season. Turco made 31 saves for Dallas, which hasn't beaten Buffalo since March 31, 2003.
Ryan Miller posted 21 saves in that victory and he has guided the Sabres to consecutive overtime victories. That has Buffalo in position to win three in a row for the first time since a six-game burst from December 27-January 8.
Miller is 2-1-0 with a 1.64 goals-against average in three starts since leading the U.S. to a silver medal in the Winter Olympics. He made 27 saves in a 3-2 win over Philadelphia on Friday, then stopped 35 shots two days later in a 2-1 triumph versus the New York Rangers.
Adam Mair scored in regulation and Patrick Kaleta had the game-winner 2:22 into OT, upping his career-high goal total to nine. The victory snapped an eight-game road losing streak (0-6-2) and was the club's second straight since a 1-6-2 stretch.
"It was a good game," Kaleta said. "I thought we skated hard and had some desperation."
The Sabres are tied with the Senators for first place in the Northeast Division thanks to their recent struggles.
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MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:
Saints +6 @ Colts -6
Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)
Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)
Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5
Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1
Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3
Patriots -5 @ Jets +5
Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5
Steelers -4 @ Browns +4
Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6
Bears +6 @ Chargers -6
Lions +3 @ Raiders -3
Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5
Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4
Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3
Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3
Super Bowl line (2008)
NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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