Cardinals do talking with sweep, jump Reds for divison lead

Baseball Betting Lines

08/11/2010 - Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colby Rasmus belted a grand slam in support of Adam Wainwright's seven scoreless innings as St. Louis downed Cincinnati, 6-1, to complete a three-game sweep and move into sole possession of first place in the National League Central.

Wainwright (17-6) put together another dominant performance, as he allowed just two hits, did not walk a batter and struck out four for the Cardinals, who lead the season series, 10-5.

Skip Schumaker had three hits and drove in a run and Jon Jay added a pair of hits and a run scored for St. Louis, which has won five of its last six contests to move one game ahead of Cincinnati.

Bronson Arroyo (12-7) lasted five innings, giving up four runs on six hits while walking three and striking out two for the Reds, who were last swept in a three-game series June 18-20 in Seattle.

Wainwright retired the side in order in four different frames and did not allow a runner past second base for a second straight start to match Ubaldo Jimenez for the major league lead in wins. His outing was limited to seven frames by a rain delay that lasted for 46 minutes heading into to the top of the eighth.

The Cardinals loaded the bases with two outs after a walk to Wainwright in the second inning, but couldn't score after Brendan Ryan struck out.

The visitors filled the bases again in the fifth on a Jay double and walks to Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday before Rasmus belted a 3-2 offering from Arroyo over the wall in straightaway centerfield for the Cardinals' second decisive grand slam of the series.

St. Louis then put the game out of reach with a pair of runs in the seventh off Jordan Smith on back-to-back run-scoring singles by Yadier Molina and Schumaker.

Cincinnati finally got on the board in the eighth when Brandon Phillips and Paul Janish singled with two outs to chase Mitchell Boggs from the hill. He was replaced by Trever Miller, who have up a base hit to Joey Votto that scored Phillips and brought Mike MacDougal out of the Cardinals bullpen. Scott Rolen then fouled out to the catcher Molina to end the threat.

Game Notes

The Reds were swept in a four-game set in Philadelphia July 8-11...The Cardinals last swept the Reds in a series September 26-28, 2008...Wainwright evened his career record against Cincinnati at 3-3 with two of the wins coming this season...He is 19-3 against division opponents since the start of 2009... The St. Louis trio of Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia allowed a total of nine hits in the series and each won their start as the Redbirds improved to 48-24 in their starts...Pujols lost a 10-game hit streak, but he scored for a tenth consecutive game...Holliday went 1-for-2 and has hit safely in seven straight and 23 out of his last 25...The Cardinals placed veteran right-hand pitcher Jeff Suppan on the 15-day disabled list with a sore groin and purchased the contract of catcher Steven Hill from Double-A Springfield... Arroyo dropped to 7-10 in his career against the Cardinals, including 1-2 this season...UFC star Rich Franklin threw out the ceremonial first pitch before the game.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.