Bulls and Knights meet in Orlando

Cfootball Betting Lines

09/03/2008 - Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The UCF Knights put their seven-game home winning streak on the line this weekend, as they collide with the 17th-ranked South Florida Bulls at Bright House Networks Stadium.

Coming off one of the best seasons in school history, the Knights opened their 2008 campaign on a high note, blanking Football Championship Subdivision member South Carolina State, 17-0. It was the first shutout since 2001 for the UCF, which stretched its home winning streak to seven games. The win also improved the team to 3-1 in season openers under head coach George O'Leary, who guided the Knights to the Conference USA title in 2007.

As for USF, it also hosted a FCS opponent in its opener, easily defeating Tennessee-Martin by a 56-7 score. The Bulls, who have now won three straight lid lifters, enter the season with lofty expectations after being ranked as high as No.2 last year.

USF and UCF have met three times previously on the gridiron, with the Bulls winning each encounter and by a combined 122-43 score.

The Bulls scored 28 points in the first quarter and never looked back in a lopsided win over UTM last weekend. The team had its way with UTM, racking up 520 total yards, including 300 via the run. Quarterback Matt Grothe engineered the offense by completing 6-of-8 passes for 96 yards and two scores. He added 19 rushing yards, but only played in the first half due to the large lead. Grothe is a big time talent and a dual threat that passed for 2,670 yards and 14 touchdowns, while rushing for 872 yards and 10 more scores in 2007. Benjamin Williams paced the ground attack with 70 yards and a score on just six carries, while Jessie Hester hauled in three balls for 50 yards and two touchdowns.

It was an impressive effort by the offense, but head coach Jim Leavitt knows that his team will be facing much tougher opponents the rest of the way.

"I do recognize that we have got different teams ahead," said Leavitt. "I'm sure that Tennessee-Martin will be good in their league, but that's not what we are going to be facing. I am proud of our players. They did what they came out to do, what they needed to do, and I think we did a pretty good job."

Much like the offense, USF's defense was simply dominant, holding UTM to a mere six first downs and a minuscule 97 yards of total offense. The defense only came up with one turnover and sack, but the unit did limit UTM to just a 1-of-14 effort on third downs. Getting to the quarterback though, shouldn't be a problem for the Bulls this season, especially with the return of George Selvie. A big time passer rusher, Selvie had 14.5 sacks last season, although he was held in check with just three tackles in the opener. Tyrone McKenzie notched the team's lone sack last weekend and he also finished with five stops.

The Knights lost several key players on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, so it wasn't a huge surprise to see this unit struggle a bit in the opener. Still, facing a much lesser opponent UCF managed just 318 total yards in a 17-0 win over SCSU. The Knights did most of their damage on the ground, rushing for 228 yards, but coach O'Leary still wasn't impressed by the performance of his backs despite the high total.

"I wasn't pleased with the way that the running backs ran. I thought there were too many times that they running backs ran with their shoulders facing the wrong way. They need to learn to cut on the move, and not stop."

Ronnie Weaver paced the ground game with 84 yards on 23 carries and Michael Greco added 57 yards on 13 totes. Freshman Latavius Murray got into the mix as well, posting 43 yards and a pair of scores on 11 totes. The trio are trying to fill the void left by Kevin Smith, who departed early for the NFL after leading the nation with 2,567 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns in 2007. Making his first career start, quarterback Michael Greco wasn't all that effective and he threw for just 90 yards on 9-of-16 tosses. Greco still has a lot to learn, but O'Leary wasn't all that thrilled with his opening performance.

"He has to make quicker decisions and have confidence in his throwing ability. He needs to throw the ball on time, and to the right spot. He needs to throw it to an area, and trust the receivers to be there."

Defensively, the Knights are loaded with returning starters and they showed their experience in completely shutting down SCSU this past weekend. The unit held SCSU to only 52 rushing yards and just 74 passing, while also recording a pair of turnovers. The defense didn't even spend 22 minutes on the field, as UCF allowed only five first downs. Jordan Richards guided the defense with seven stops, while Chance Henderson added six tackles. T.J. Harnden chipped in with three stops and also accounted for the team's lone sack. The Knights are stacked on defense and this unit is going to have to play above their heads in order to compensate for a young offense.

Bragging rights are on the line in the Sunshine State this weekend and that should have both teams ready for a battle. USF however, clearly has the better offense and that will make the biggest difference in this game. Expect the Bulls to move the ball and even dominate on defense en route to the victory.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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