04/21/2007 - Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Clint Bowyer won Friday night's Bashas' Supermarkets 200 at the Phoenix International Raceway. The No.2 Chevrolet driver crossed the finish line ahead of Matt Kenseth.
The victory was Bowyer's first of the season and fifth of his Busch career.
Pole winner Kyle Busch brought 43 cars to the green flag for 200 laps of Busch Series racing. But on the first lap trouble started about midway through the pack and it sent Shane Huffman, Tony Raines and Aric Almirola to the garage for repairs.
After the restart, Busch took off building a solid lead over Bowyer and the field. The car on the move however, was Casey Mears who started 17th but cracked the top-10 by lap 30. Busch led a total of 33 laps before Bowyer took a turn at the top. Bowyer and Jeff Burton moved out to a three-second lead on Busch who said his car was too loose.
Bowyer, Busch and Burton continued to show the way while Edwards, the points leader, was fourth. But Edwards also had some left-front fender damage from a pit lane collision with Marcos Ambrose that might effect his aerodynamics.
At lap 90 it was still Bowyer, Busch and Burton with the lead. Mears was up to seventh and a new player was coming on fast - Kevin Harvick. Driving the No.77 Kevin Harvick Inc. Chevrolet, Harvick has started 35th but was up to 12th.
Following a pit stop, Ryan Newman stayed out to take the lead while all the other leaders pitted. The strategy didn't work as Newman and Busch got together on the backstretch as the cars with new tires were trying to pass Newman on the older rubber.
On lap 101 Busch was almost past Newman when he slid up in front of him and his right-rear quarter panel hit Newman's left-front fender. Both drivers were knocked out of the race.
Bowyer and Burton exchanged the lead a couple of times which allowed third- place Denny Hamlin to get to their back bumper. And 2003 Nextel Cup Series champion Kenseth joined them as well.
Burton slowly edged away from Bowyer and by lap 130 the lead was 1.524 seconds. One of the reasons Burton was getting away was that Bowyer's crew was telling him to conserve fuel.
Then Todd Kluever spun on lap 136 bringing out the caution flag and forcing a decision for every crew chief.
Do you stay out and hope for a couple more caution flags or pit and be assured of making the checkered flag on fuel?
All the leader pitted for fuel and four tires except Juan Montoya in the No.42 Evernham Motorsports Dodge. He gained 12 positions on the track by taking two tires and fuel only. However, he didn't last there for very long, just like Newman earlier in the race. Bowyer, Kenseth and Hamlin all got around Montoya on the first green-flag lap.
Kluever spun for the second time in the evening to bring out a caution flag, leaving 40 laps left to race.
Bowyer, Kenseth and Hamlin again got out quickly. With 30 laps to go Kenseth went to the high side and made the successful pass around Bowyer. Kenseth and Bowyer moved out on Burton in third leaving him more than one second back with 20 laps to go.
Bowyer kept taking a peek to the inside, but couldn't make the move just yet. Then with 14 laps he tried it again and got side-by-side. He edged in front of him, but Kenseth wouldn't go away.
The fun battle was interrupted when Stephen Leicht crashed to bring out one more caution flag.
The race restarted with seven laps to go and Bowyer got off well. In fact, he broke free of Kenseth and Burton began to pressure Kenseth for second place. The second-place fight left Bowyer to cruise to the checkered flag and his first win of 2007.
Burton, Hamlin and Edwards completed the top-five.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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