Around FCS: Sizing Up Cal Poly And Montana

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09/03/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You don't usually get a great number of games with major playoff and ranking implications in the second week of the FCS season, but one of the most anticipated games of the year will be played on Saturday evening when Cal Poly hosts Montana.

Both sides have been looking forward to this one since they met in a pair of memorable games during the 2005 season, and again during the 2006 campaign.

Montana won round one in the '05 regular season, outlasting Cal Poly, 36-27, in one of the most entertaining games of the year at Washington-Grizzly Stadium. Lex Hilliard was a beast for the Grizzlies in that one, rushing for 237 yards and a touchdown to lead a spirited Montana comeback.

Both teams made the playoffs, and Cal Poly won the more important of the two encounters, beating Montana 35-21 in the first round of the playoffs with Mustang tailback James Noble darting and dashing for 188 yards and four touchdowns.

The teams met again during the 2006 regular season and provided another classic game. While offensive excellence had made the difference in those two 2005 contests, the third game turned into a defensive struggle.

Cal Poly managed three field goals to take a late lead, but Montana came back to win 10-9 in the final seconds. The Mustangs were so drained and banged up from that loss that they had nothing left the following week as North Dakota State overwhelmed them 51-10.

Ever since then, Cal Poly has waited for another chance to play the Grizzlies, this time at Alex G. Spanos Stadium.

Cal Poly is coming off the emotional high of beating San Diego State 29-27 on Andrew Gardner's 21-yard field goal at the final gun. Quarterback Jonathan Dally marched the Mustangs from their own 33 to the San Diego State four to set up Gardner's kick.

Dally had a pair of connections with Ramses Barden for 13 and 10 yards, and James Noble broke loose for a key 29-yard run in the Cal Poly option.

The Mustangs led most of the way behind an offense that piled up 483 yards of total offense, and a defense that forced four Aztec turnovers. Cal Poly limited the Aztecs to 379 yards, and held a decisive 16-minute advantage in time of possession.

Noble showed his form of 2005-06, when he had back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, with 11 carries for 89 yards. Ryan Mole was another running back who displayed the style of his past Sacramento State days, with 12 carries for 84 yards. Each scored a touchdown.

Dally hit 12-of-21 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown and added 40 yards on 17 carries. while Walter Payton Award candidate Barden caught seven passes for 161 yards (23.0 per catch), including one for a 47-yard touchdown.

Fred Hives was the leader on defense with 10 tackles, including one sack.

As big as a second win in three years over San Diego State was, beating Montana would be even bigger for the Mustangs, who are continuing to build their reputation as west coast powerhouse in FCS.

Such is the respect that the Grizzlies have built in winning a share of 10 consecutive Big Sky crowns, earning playoff berths for an NCAA-record 15 straight years, reaching five national championship games and winning two FCS titles.

Montana faces the disadvantage of playing a team with a game under its belt in the season opener, as well as having to beat the Mustangs on the road.

This is also a more inexperienced Grizzly team than opponents are used to seeing. Montana has just 10 starters back, only three on defense, but can rebuild around 46 lettermen.

Montana lost Buchanan Award-winning defensive end Kroy Biermann, kicker Dan Carpenter and Hilliard to the NFL and have some questions heading into the season at receiver, linebacker and on special teams, but the Grizzlies do return a pair of cagy seniors in Buchanan Award candidate Colt Anderson at strong safety and quarterback Cole Bergquist.

Perhaps Montana's biggest strength is its veteran offensive line, which includes three players who could emerge as All-Americans - guard Colin Dow, tackle Brent Russum and center J.D. Quinn. Guard Dan Carter is a player who often gets overlooked because of the talent of those other lineman.

You can expect both teams to try to exercise ball control, with turnovers and a handful of big plays probably deciding what should be a tightly-contested game. It should make for a fun contest, and one of the more memorable games of 2008.

RAIN, RAIN, GO AWAY

The first weekend of the FCS season was played under the shadow of Hurricane Gustav for several teams, with teams from Louisiana having to deal with the possibility of evacuations, changes for the start of one game and all sorts of other logistical concerns.

Appalachian State found out on Friday afternoon that its game at LSU would be played at 11 a.m. eastern time instead of 5 p.m. The time change also meant that this showdown between the three-time defending FCS champion and the current BCS titlist would be bumped off ESPN and shown on ESPN Classic instead.

The juggling of television schedules proved to be a boon for Delaware, which had its game at Maryland shown on both ESPNU, its originally scheduled location, and ESPN, meaning many more fans were able to see the Blue Hens battle the Terrapins to the wire in a 14-7 loss.

The fury of Hurricane Gustav didn't prove to be as bad as expected, but it did have a major impact on some Southland Conference schools.

Nicholls State, located in Thibodaux, LA. near where Hurricane Gustav made landfall, suffered some severe wind and flood damage, though the extent of it was still unknown on Wednesday afternoon.

The Colonels cancelled their road game scheduled for Thursday night with New Mexico State, due to logistical problems with practicing and travel.

"Their campus was probably hit the hardest of any of our schools," said Todd Lamb, the media relations director for the Southland Conference.

Southland schools had to cancel sporting events ranging from women's soccer to cross country and volleyball. Classes were also closed at all of the Louisiana campuses. McNeese State and Northwestern State experienced high winds and power outages, but avoided worse damage.

Southeastern Louisiana, an hour north of New Orleans in Hammond, LA., had some minor wind damage, similar to what it suffered from Hurricane Katrina three years ago. There were 90 miles-per-hour wind gusts in the area, but the stadium facilities escaped with relatively minor damage.

SLU will reopen Friday for employees and Monday for students, with its football home opener expected to go on as scheduled on Sept. 13 against South Dakota.

The Lions were in the process of completing work on luxury suites and a new press box when the storm hit, and the new facilities apparently escaped unscathed, SLU sports information director Matt Sullivan said.

Southeastern Louisiana is scheduled to play Mississippi State on the road Saturday. The Lion squad evacuated to Oxford, MS, and has been practicing at Ole Miss this week in preparation for that game.

Meanwhile in the SWAC, Grambling missed some of the flooding that was experienced at some of the other cities in northwestern Louisiana and is preparing for its home opener on Saturday against Alcorn State, while Southern had minor wind and rain concerns in Baton Rouge and is getting ready for its trip to Tennessee State.

Games this weekend from the southeast to the northeast have the potential to be impacted by another storm, Hurricane Hanna.

One game has already been rescheduled and more might follow. Coastal Carolina has moved its home game with Colgate from Saturday at 7 p.m. to Sunday at 1 p.m.

A big suggestion for fans taking in FCS games in the southeast and northeast this weekend is to be sure and pack your rain gear.

OOPS, WRONG STADIUM

Two FCS schools were involved in one of the craziest incidents from the first weekend. North Carolina had scheduled to have an airplane drop skydivers over Kenan Stadium on Saturday to deliver the game balls for its contest with McNeese State.

But thunderstorms in the North Carolina Triangle brought confusion to the pilot and when he dropped off the skydivers, they landed eight miles away from Chapel Hill and Keenan Stadium at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, the home of the Tar Heels' arch-rival, Duke.

Duke was hosting a game of its own against James Madison and Blue Devil officials were stunned when a plane started circling the stadium's air space and then dropped off the skydivers.

The skydivers were just as stunned moments later, after a successful landing, when they found out that they had delivered the game balls to the wrong stadium. A quick call to Keenan Stadium cleared up the confusion, but not before causing some nervous moments for Duke.

North Carolina and Duke were more coordinated on the field, with the Heels holding off McNeese State, 35-27 and the Blue Devils toppling James Madison, 31-7.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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